A new kind of warfare is on the horizon. It’s called cyberwarfare. The 21st century’s first cyberwar has kicked off and I believe there are some important implications to the industrialized nations as well.
But Estonia—”e-Stonia” to its fans—practices forms of e-government advanced even by Western European standards. Estonians pay taxes online, vote online, bank online. Their national ID cards contain electronic chips. When the country’s Cabinet meets, everyone brings their laptop. When denial-of-service attacks start taking down Estonian Web sites, it matters.
Unlike classic terrorism, the essence of modern cyberwarfare is its anonymity. Though some of the attacks did appear to come from PCs belonging to the Russian presidential administration, others came from as far afield as Brazil and Vietnam.
Estonia’s entire government was shut down because it runs in cyberspace. This is very advanced, even for Western nations like the U.S., whose citizens are generally more afraid of the Internet (or at least leery) more than embracing it. That is, voting hasn’t gone online yet nor do most people make purchases online. This is partly due to the fact that there is a fear of cybercrime in general.
Cyberwar, however, doesn’t kill. It doesn’t even maim. It only inconviences. However, if the cyberattack had been followed by a large scale military attack then that would have had more far reaching implications. I believe some day we may see such a thing.
As more and more nations go online and put their governments online, I think we’ll see more e-savvy governments like Estonia who migrate to a completely digital world. They will be vulnerable. In this case, the conflict arose over Cold War era disputes. It is possible that members of Russia’s government or leadership was behind it. Though it is difficult to say because with some technology, like cloaking, an attacker can be anonymous. This creates a demand for digital defense systems that detect the source of attacks made by cloakers. If such defense systems did exist and Estonia had them, what would become of the situation if they could tell that attacks in Vietnam, for instance, actually originated in Russian parliament? All hell could break loose.
Conclusion: The Internet has made it probable that a one-world government will be established this century. Organizations like NATO are obsolete. There will be a growing perception among world leaders that cyberspace will need to be policed and right now there is no one qualified or in a position to do that policing. An organization will have to be created across international lines to do this. It will not be ICANN. It will have to be an organization that is empowered by the nations of the world to establish laws and enforce those laws across international lines regarding the protection of human rights, tracking down cyberthieves, and committing resources to the pursuit of justice should cybercriminals get caught. It will just be one more opportunity for some people to overreach their legitimate authority.
